Home Sales About To Surge? We May See a Winter Like Never Before.

Like most industries, residential real estate has a seasonality to it. For instance, toy stores sell more toys in October, November, and December than they do in some other three-month range consistently. More vehicles are sold in the U.S. during the subsequent quarter (April, May, and June) than in some other quarter of the year. 

Real estate is very similar. The quantity of homes sold in the spring is quite often a lot more prominent than at some other season. Its even named as the spring purchasing season. All things considered, the quantity of purchasers and postings available to be purchased essentially increment in the spring and stays solid all through the mid year. When fall sets in, the quantity of purchasers and venders commonly drops off. 

Last year, nonetheless, that irregularity didn't occur. The flare-up of the infection and ensuing easing back of the economy restricted deals throughout the spring market. These deals were pushed back later in the year, and the previous fall and winter saw a sensational expansion in home deals over earlier years. The main thing that kept the market down was the very restricted stockpile of homes available to be purchased.

What About This Winter?

Some experts thought we’d return to the industry’s normal seasonality this winter with both the number of purchasers and houses available for sale falling off. In any case, data currently shows that neither of those circumstances will probably happen. Purchaser request is still amazingly impressive, and it seems we may before long see a to some degree strange expansion in the quantity of homes going to the market.

Buyer Demand Remains Strong

The latest Showing Index from ShowingTime, which tracks the average number of monthly showings on available homes, indicates buyer activity was slightly lower than at the same time last year but much higher than any of the three previous years (see chart below):A report from realtor.com confirms buying activity remains strong in the existing home sales market:

“New housing data shows 2021's feverish home sales pace broke a yearly record in October, . . . with last month marking the eighth straight month of buyers snatching up homes more quickly than the fastest pace in previous years. . . .”

Buyer activity for newly constructed homes is also very strong. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist for Zonda, recently reported that Stuart Miller, the Executive Chairman of Lennar, one of the nation’s largest home builders, said this about demand:

“There is still a great deal of demand at our sales centers with people lining up and not enough supply.”

The only question heading into this winter is whether the number of listings available could come close to meeting this buyer demand. We may have just received the answer to that question.

Sellers Are About To List – Right Now

Instead of waiting for the normal spring buying market, new research indicates that homeowners thinking about selling are about to put their homes on the market this winter.

Speaking to the release of a report on this recent research, George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research for realtor.com, said:

“The pandemic has delayed plans for many Americans, and homeowners looking to move on to the next stage of life are no exception. Recent survey data suggests the majority of prospective sellers are actively preparing to enter the market this winter.”

Here are some highlights in the report:

Of homeowners planning to enter the market in the next year:

• 65% - Have just listed (19%) or plan to list this winter
• 93% - Have already taken steps toward listing their home, including working with an agent (28%)
• 36% - Have researched the value of their home and others in their neighborhood
• 36% - Have started making repairs or decluttering

The report also discusses the reasons sellers want to move:

• 33% - Have realized they want different home features
• 37% - Say their home no longer meets their family's needs
• 32% - Want to move closer to friends and family
• 23% - Are looking for a home office

Data shows buyer demand remains unusually strong going into this winter. Research indicates the supply of inventory is about to increase. This could be a winter real estate market like never before.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, now is the time to have a heart-to-heart conversation with a real estate professional in your market, as things are about to change in an unexpected way.